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2010 House · HI-1

Ward Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 399 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 48%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.23% · Republican 46.77%

D+6.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 48 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.228 − 46.772 = 6.456
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (6.456) = -9.455
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.455| = 9.455

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.5 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51745, race ID 4585 (538 database).