2010 House · HI-2
Ward Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 192 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 77% · Republican 16%
D+61.0
The certified result
Democrat 72.19% · Republican 25.32%
D+46.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 77 − 16 = 61.00
- Actual margin = 72.188 − 25.322 = 46.866
- Signed miss = 61.00 − (46.866) = 14.134
- Absolute miss = |14.134| = 14.134
The poll overstated the Democrat by 14.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51745, race ID 4586 (538 database).