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2010 House · IA-2

Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 45%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.99% · Republican 45.92%

D+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 45 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.991 − 45.920 = 5.071
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (5.071) = -6.071
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.071| = 6.071

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51750, race ID 4618 (538 database).