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2010 House · IL-10

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2010-10-31 (2 days before the election) · 861 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 54%

R+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.92% · Republican 51.08%

R+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 54 = -8.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.919 − 51.080 = -2.161
  3. Signed miss = -8.00 − (-2.161) = -5.839
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.839| = 5.839

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51764, race ID 4598 (538 database).