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2010 House · IL-14

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2010-10-31 (2 days before the election) · 784 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45.3% · Republican 50.3%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.04% · Republican 51.31%

R+6.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.3 − 50.3 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.041 − 51.307 = -6.266
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-6.266) = 1.266
  4. Absolute miss = |1.266| = 1.266

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51764, race ID 4602 (538 database).