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2010 House · IL-10

We Ask America · fieldwork ended 2010-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 1,148 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 50%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.92% · Republican 51.08%

R+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 50 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.919 − 51.080 = -2.161
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (-2.161) = -8.839
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.839| = 8.839

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51768, race ID 4598 (538 database).