Skip to content

2010 House · MA-4

Fleming & Associates · fieldwork ended 2010-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 37%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.90% · Republican 43.36%

D+10.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 37 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.900 − 43.360 = 10.540
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (10.540) = 1.460
  4. Absolute miss = |1.460| = 1.460

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51832, race ID 4652 (538 database).