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2010 House · ME-1

Digital Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 295 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 45%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.81% · Republican 43.17%

D+13.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 45 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.815 − 43.171 = 13.644
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (13.644) = -17.644
  4. Absolute miss = |-17.644| = 17.644

The poll overstated the Republican by 17.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51844, race ID 4639 (538 database).