2010 House · ME-2
Digital Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 326 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 44% · Republican 40%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.13% · Republican 44.87%
D+10.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 44 − 40 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 55.132 − 44.868 = 10.264
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (10.264) = -6.263
- Absolute miss = |-6.263| = 6.263
The poll overstated the Republican by 6.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51844, race ID 4640 (538 database).