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2010 House · ME-1

Digital Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 295 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 40%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.81% · Republican 43.17%

D+13.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 40 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.815 − 43.171 = 13.644
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (13.644) = -8.644
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.644| = 8.644

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51845, race ID 4639 (538 database).