2010 House · ME-1
Pan Atlantic Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 250 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 33%
D+16.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.81% · Republican 43.17%
D+13.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 33 = 16.00
- Actual margin = 56.815 − 43.171 = 13.644
- Signed miss = 16.00 − (13.644) = 2.356
- Absolute miss = |2.356| = 2.356
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51846, race ID 4639 (538 database).