2010 House · MI-15
EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 36%
D+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.81% · Republican 40.08%
D+16.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 36 = 17.00
- Actual margin = 56.808 − 40.079 = 16.729
- Signed miss = 17.00 − (16.729) = 0.271
- Absolute miss = |0.271| = 0.271
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51852, race ID 4673 (538 database).