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2010 House · MI-3

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 30% · Republican 49%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 37.47% · Republican 59.68%

R+22.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 30 − 49 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 37.468 − 59.677 = -22.209
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (-22.209) = 3.208
  4. Absolute miss = |3.208| = 3.208

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51858, race ID 4661 (538 database).