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2010 House · MI-7

EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 39%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.38% · Republican 50.16%

R+4.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 39 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.377 − 50.155 = -4.778
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (-4.778) = 10.778
  4. Absolute miss = |10.778| = 10.778

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51862, race ID 4665 (538 database).