2010 House · MN-8
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 665 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 46%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.59% · Republican 48.18%
R+1.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 46 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 46.590 − 48.177 = -1.587
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (-1.587) = 2.588
- Absolute miss = |2.588| = 2.588
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51881, race ID 4681 (538 database).