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2010 House · MS-1

PSB Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 603 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 44%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.80% · Republican 55.26%

R+14.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 44 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.799 − 55.261 = -14.462
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-14.462) = 9.462
  4. Absolute miss = |9.462| = 9.462

The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51888, race ID 4682 (538 database).