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2010 House · MS-2

JMC Analytics · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 467 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 41%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.47% · Republican 37.64%

D+23.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 41 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.467 − 37.640 = 23.827
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (23.827) = -22.826
  4. Absolute miss = |-22.826| = 22.826

The poll overstated the Republican by 22.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51893, race ID 4683 (538 database).