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2010 House · ND-1

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2010-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 51%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.08% · Republican 54.92%

R+9.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 51 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.079 − 54.921 = -9.842
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-9.842) = 0.842
  4. Absolute miss = |0.842| = 0.842

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51914, race ID 4762 (538 database).