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2010 House · ND-1

PSB Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 398 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 44%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.08% · Republican 54.92%

R+9.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 44 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.079 − 54.921 = -9.842
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (-9.842) = 10.842
  4. Absolute miss = |10.842| = 10.842

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.8 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51916, race ID 4762 (538 database).