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2010 House · NJ-3

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2010-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 442 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 48%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.32% · Republican 50.03%

R+2.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 48 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.321 − 50.027 = -2.706
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-2.706) = -2.293
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.293| = 2.293

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51933, race ID 4706 (538 database).