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2010 House · NJ-12

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2010-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 442 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 43%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.05% · Republican 45.90%

D+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 43 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.046 − 45.899 = 7.147
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (7.147) = 0.853
  4. Absolute miss = |0.853| = 0.853

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51943, race ID 4715 (538 database).