2010 House · NM-1
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 49%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.80% · Republican 48.20%
D+3.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 49 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 51.803 − 48.197 = 3.606
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (3.606) = -6.605
- Absolute miss = |-6.605| = 6.605
The poll overstated the Republican by 6.6 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51945, race ID 4717 (538 database).