2010 House · NM-2
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 48%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.60% · Republican 55.40%
R+10.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 48 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 44.597 − 55.403 = -10.806
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-10.806) = 7.806
- Absolute miss = |7.806| = 7.806
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51945, race ID 4718 (538 database).