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2010 House · NM-1

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2010-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 49%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.80% · Republican 48.20%

D+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.803 − 48.197 = 3.606
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (3.606) = -5.605
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.605| = 5.605

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.6 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51946, race ID 4717 (538 database).