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2010 House · NY-19

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2010-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 651 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 46%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.78% · Republican 41.13%

D+4.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 46 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.781 − 41.130 = 4.651
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (4.651) = -3.650
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.650| = 3.650

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51971, race ID 4738 (538 database).