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2010 House · NY-23

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2010-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 623 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 37%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.06% · Republican 40.35%

D+4.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 37 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.056 − 40.352 = 4.704
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (4.704) = -1.704
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.704| = 1.704

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51971, race ID 4742 (538 database).