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2010 House · NY-19

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2010-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 636 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 48%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.78% · Republican 41.13%

D+4.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 48 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.781 − 41.130 = 4.651
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (4.651) = -3.650
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.650| = 3.650

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51973, race ID 4738 (538 database).