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2010 House · NY-19

PSB Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 416 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 43%

even

The certified result

Democrat 45.78% · Republican 41.13%

D+4.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 43 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.781 − 41.130 = 4.651
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (4.651) = -4.650
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.650| = 4.650

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.7 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51974, race ID 4738 (538 database).