Skip to content

2010 House · NY-24

PSB Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 37%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.26% · Republican 43.19%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 37 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.255 − 43.185 = 2.070
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (2.070) = 7.930
  4. Absolute miss = |7.930| = 7.930

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51974, race ID 4743 (538 database).