Skip to content

2010 House · NY-20

Siena College · fieldwork ended 2010-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 676 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 51%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.75% · Republican 45.27%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 51 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.746 − 45.273 = -1.527
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-1.527) = -7.473
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.473| = 7.473

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51978, race ID 4739 (538 database).