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2010 House · OR-1

Elway Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 38%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.75% · Republican 41.94%

D+12.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 38 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.746 − 41.944 = 12.802
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (12.802) = 0.198
  4. Absolute miss = |0.198| = 0.198

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52016, race ID 4786 (538 database).