2010 House · OR-5
Elway Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 38%
D+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.25% · Republican 45.96%
D+5.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 38 = 12.00
- Actual margin = 51.249 − 45.957 = 5.292
- Signed miss = 12.00 − (5.292) = 6.708
- Absolute miss = |6.708| = 6.708
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52016, race ID 4790 (538 database).