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2010 House · PA-4

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. · fieldwork ended 2010-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 400 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 35%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.81% · Republican 49.19%

D+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 35 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.814 − 49.186 = 1.628
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (1.628) = 10.373
  4. Absolute miss = |10.373| = 10.373

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52032, race ID 4794 (538 database).