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2010 House · PA-8

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 50%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.48% · Republican 53.52%

R+7.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 50 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.477 − 53.523 = -7.046
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-7.046) = -2.955
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.955| = 2.955

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52040, race ID 4798 (538 database).