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2010 House · PA-8

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2010-10-12 (21 days before the election) · 646 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 51%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.48% · Republican 53.52%

R+7.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 51 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.477 − 53.523 = -7.046
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-7.046) = 2.045
  4. Absolute miss = |2.045| = 2.045

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52041, race ID 4798 (538 database).