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2010 House · PA-10

PSB Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 406 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 41%

even

The certified result

Democrat 44.82% · Republican 55.18%

R+10.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 41 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.823 − 55.177 = -10.354
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-10.354) = 10.353
  4. Absolute miss = |10.353| = 10.353

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52048, race ID 4800 (538 database).