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2010 House · PA-11

PSB Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 402 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 48%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.30% · Republican 54.70%

R+9.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 48 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.299 − 54.701 = -9.402
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-9.402) = 4.401
  4. Absolute miss = |4.401| = 4.401

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52055, race ID 4801 (538 database).