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2010 House · SD-1

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 45%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.89% · Republican 48.12%

R+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 45 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.891 − 48.119 = -2.228
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-2.228) = 0.227
  4. Absolute miss = |0.227| = 0.227

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52086, race ID 4818 (538 database).