2010 House · TX-23
OnMessage Inc. · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 45%
R+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.44% · Republican 49.40%
R+5.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 45 = -6.00
- Actual margin = 44.444 − 49.397 = -4.953
- Signed miss = -6.00 − (-4.953) = -1.047
- Absolute miss = |-1.047| = 1.047
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52114, race ID 4850 (538 database).