2010 House · UT-2
Dan Jones & Associates · fieldwork ended 2010-10-12 (21 days before the election) · 226 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 57% · Republican 31%
D+26.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.49% · Republican 46.06%
D+4.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 57 − 31 = 26.00
- Actual margin = 50.487 − 46.060 = 4.427
- Signed miss = 26.00 − (4.427) = 21.573
- Absolute miss = |21.573| = 21.573
The poll overstated the Democrat by 21.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52118, race ID 4861 (538 database).