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2010 House · WA-2

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 643 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 46%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.07% · Republican 48.93%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 46 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.072 − 48.928 = 2.144
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (2.144) = 1.855
  4. Absolute miss = |1.855| = 1.855

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52148, race ID 4876 (538 database).