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2010 House · WA-3

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 640 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 50%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.03% · Republican 52.97%

R+5.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 50 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.028 − 52.972 = -5.944
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-5.944) = 1.944
  4. Absolute miss = |1.944| = 1.944

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52152, race ID 4877 (538 database).