Skip to content

2010 House · WA-6

Clout Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 1,262 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 44.2% · Republican 48.3%

R+4.1

The certified result

Democrat 58.04% · Republican 41.96%

D+16.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.2 − 48.3 = -4.10
  2. Actual margin = 58.039 − 41.961 = 16.078
  3. Signed miss = -4.10 − (16.078) = -20.178
  4. Absolute miss = |-20.178| = 20.178

The poll overstated the Republican by 20.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52157, race ID 4880 (538 database).