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2010 House · WI-8

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 442 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 40%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.12% · Republican 54.77%

R+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 40 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.123 − 54.765 = -9.642
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-9.642) = 6.642
  4. Absolute miss = |6.642| = 6.642

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52173, race ID 4894 (538 database).