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2012 House · FL-18

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2012-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 586 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41.8% · Republican 50.9%

R+9.1

The certified result

Democrat 50.28% · Republican 49.70%

D+0.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41.8 − 50.9 = -9.10
  2. Actual margin = 50.280 − 49.704 = 0.576
  3. Signed miss = -9.10 − (0.576) = -9.676
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.676| = 9.676

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52272, race ID 5000 (538 database).