Skip to content

2012 House · FL-22

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2012-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 557 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 44.8%

D+3.2

The certified result

Democrat 54.63% · Republican 45.37%

D+9.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 44.8 = 3.20
  2. Actual margin = 54.627 − 45.373 = 9.254
  3. Signed miss = 3.20 − (9.254) = -6.054
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.054| = 6.054

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52272, race ID 5004 (538 database).