Skip to content

2012 House · FL-26

St. Pete Polls · fieldwork ended 2012-10-16 (21 days before the election) · 469 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43.4% · Republican 45.9%

R+2.5

The certified result

Democrat 53.64% · Republican 43.02%

D+10.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.4 − 45.9 = -2.50
  2. Actual margin = 53.643 − 43.019 = 10.624
  3. Signed miss = -2.50 − (10.624) = -13.124
  4. Absolute miss = |-13.124| = 13.124

The poll overstated the Republican by 13.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52272, race ID 5008 (538 database).