Skip to content

2012 House · KY-6

Clout Research · fieldwork ended 2012-10-23 (14 days before the election) · 776 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 45%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.68% · Republican 50.57%

R+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 45 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.679 − 50.568 = -3.889
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-3.889) = -0.111
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.111| = 0.111

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52281, race ID 5068 (538 database).