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2012 House · TN-4

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2012-10-22 (15 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 49%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.24% · Republican 55.76%

R+11.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 49 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.244 − 55.756 = -11.512
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-11.512) = -1.488
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.488| = 1.488

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52287, race ID 5252 (538 database).