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2012 House · NY-23

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2012-10-22 (15 days before the election) · 955 respondents · IVR · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 44.7% · Republican 49.7%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.95% · Republican 42.05%

R+1.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44.7 − 49.7 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.955 − 42.045 = -1.090
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-1.090) = -3.910
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.910| = 3.910

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52295, race ID 5176 (538 database).